EM COMMENT
Will Russia's latest attack on the Odessa port, undermine the grain deal with Ukraine?
By Padmashree Anandhan

What was Russia-Ukraine grain deal?
On 22 July, representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkiye, and the UN met to mediate a deal to remove the Russian blockade from Ukraine’s ports. All the actors in the deal agreed to sign upon the setting up of the Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul, which will overlook the vessels that will enter Ukraine’s ports to keep a check on cargoes, personnel, and possible attacks. The key aspects of the deal are, first, it will allow the exporting of grains, foodstuff, fertilizers, and ammonia through three Black Sea ports, Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny.  Second, it mandates registration of every vehicle that will pass through the humanitarian maritime corridor and shall be inspected by Turkiye authorities to check the cargoes and personnel entering and exiting Ukraine. Third, the vessels passing through the corridor will be monitored by all parties to the agreement and will be subject to direct inspection if any suspicious activity traced. Fourth, the signed deal is applicable for 120 days and will be extended for the same period unless one of the parties calls for termination or modification.

Why did Moscow and Kyiv agree to the deal?
The reason behind Russia and Ukraine accepting the deal varies at different levels. At the domestic, Ukraine is the top producer of grain, cooking oil, fertilizers, wheat, corn, and sunflower oil, the deal will help reduce the economic damage, prevent the threat of running out of storage facility for grains and re-start the exports. From the perspective of war, Ukraine wanted a security guarantee to carry out its exports without disruption and interventions from Russia. With the deal provided Ukraine’s export a safe path through the maritime corridor and monitored the movement of the ships, which meant an equal hand for Ukraine to sign the deal.

For Russia, withdrawing its blockade from Ukraine’s key Black Sea ports might be a step back on the war front. In terms of economy, the deal matters more to Russia. With sanctions from the west blocking its wheat and sunflower oil exports, Russia sees this as an opportunity to use the mirror agreement which was scheduled to be signed after the grain deal to export its goods free of sanctions. The Russian economy is already struggling with excess oil and grains, the deal could be a start to striking future deals to ease its economic loss.

In terms of the deal, Russia is in a better position than Ukraine. After the sinking of the Moskva ship, Russia’s limitation in the navy was revealed, but it recouped and was successful in causing disruption to Ukraine’s maritime traffic to scare away the shipping firms. Therefore, if the mirror deal is not signed or Russia’s demands on exporting its grains sanction free not met, then the possible next step would be to interrupt Ukraine’s maritime route again. On the other hand, since Turkiye is the overseeing inspector and is a close ally, Russia will be able to keep a close check on the goods that enter or exit and prevent the supply of weapons through waterways to Ukraine.

Another important factor for Russia is its international reputation, apart from close partnering countries like China, India, and a few countries in Europe, and Africa all have shunned their economic trade and relations due to the war and pressure from the US. To keep up its international image and economy, it requires international links. Therefore, to showcase that its issue lies only with Ukraine and not the rest of the world which is facing the food crisis, Russia opted to green signal the deal.

Why was the grain deal important for rest of the world?
Ukraine has nine ports that form part of the north-western Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Amongst the nine ports, Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi contribute the highest per cent of grain exports. Major importers of Ukraine’s grain are east African countries, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, and the Middle-East country, Yemen. These countries are not only dependent on Ukraine’s grain exports but also face economic downturns and acute hunger. Russia launching the war and forcing Ukraine’s maritime trade to close down has pushed others to face the price hike and increased food shortages. Although certain remote ports in Bosporus Straits have continued to operate, it has not been sufficient. At the regional level, Ukraine is considered the “breadbasket” for Europe, and with Russia blocking the port entrances, Europe attempted to re-route the grain export through the Danube Delta of Romania, or through road or train from Moldova and Lithuania. Since the attempts failed due to challenges in scraping the way for ships, issues in train gauges, and logistics, Ukraine transiting its grains is more crucial than ever for the regional and international. Challenges still exist, as shipping companies might fear engaging due to high risk in freight and insurance, but through the deal, the accumulated grains can be unloaded from silos and exported using the agreed humanitarian maritime corridor.

Will the missile attack on ports torpedo the deal?
According to the deal, no foreign personnel can be in the Ukraine port, only the monitoring of ship movement and inspection of cargoes in the ship is open for all parties to the deal. In terms of missile attacks, Russia is barred from launching any attacks on the port facility, ships, and civilian vessels that enter and exit Ukraine and JCC. As per the agreed conditions of the deal, the signatories are banned from attacking the ports, ships, and civilian vessels engaged in grain exports. Therefore, Russia’s recent attack on Odesa port does break the deal, regardless of the target being a military infrastructure or a silo.

On the probability of such attacks, one, Russia would consider its economy and its international equation before launching, but for short-term gains, such as signing similar deals to withdraw its forces from other ports or important industrial cities. Two, to maintain its sphere of influence, it can carry out missile attacks to take down Ukraine’s military that stand guard of the ports.

War in Ukraine: Day 155
By Rishma Banerjee  
 
War on the ground 
On 28 July, Ukraine forces reported on the Russian attacks in the Chernihiv region and Sumy region. Where artillery fire took place in the Kharkiv region and two Mi-8 helicopters struck near Staryi Saltiv. Ukraine observed that the launch of 22 missiles and 10 artillery strikes in the Mykolaiv region had also hit the regional center. Russia also launched attacks in the Sloviansk, and the Southern Buh region with tanks, and tube and rocket artillery, but no new activity were recorded in the Kramatorsk direction.
 
Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a poll which revealed that 84 per cent of the citizens in Ukraine are against any territorial concessions. The poll sampled from 06-20 July showed a similar result to the previous poll held in May, where 82 per cent of people believed that losing territory was not an option.
 
The spokesperson of the security service of Ukraine, Artem Dekhtiarenko said that Russia was preparing to hold “pseudo-referendums” on the territories that they have occupied. Dekhtiarenko alleged that the organization, DPR, which already has over 1000 members were being used to mobilize more people.

The Moscow View
Claims by Russia 
On 28 July, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov held meetings with leaders from Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda and Congo-Brazzaville Ethiopia’s president, Sahle-Work Zewde, and foreign minister, Demeke Mekonnen. During the visit, Lavrov blamed the West for imposing sanctions on Russia which has impacted the prices of the grains. In his meeting in Egypt, he assured that Russia would stand committed in exporting its grains. Egypt is one most dependent country on wheat from Russia and Ukraine which has been severely affected by the war.
 
The commander of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Admiral Igor Osipove congratulated the navy on the Day of the Navy. He reiterated that it was the Black Sea Fleet's resilience that made it possible for Russia to gain control in the Azov sea region.
 
On the same day, the deputy head of the Kherson region’s military-civil administration, Kirill Stremousov said that Kherson is preparing to hold a referendum on the region. If passed, the region will become a full-fledged constituent entity of Russia.
 
Also on 28 July, Russia’s media regulator Roskomnadzor filed a lawsuit to revoke the registration of the independent newspaper, Novaya Gazeta. The media had already stopped operating in Russia since March after warnings from Roskomnadzor about removing anti-Russian content from its website. If its registration is stripped off, journalists in Novaya Gazeta will lose the right to work in Russia, even if the paper resumes operations later.

The West View
Responses from the US and Europe  
On 28 July, the UK government disclosed on the count of applications received from the Ukrainian refugees. According to the UK, close to 198,200 applications have been received and 166,200 visas have been issued. To deal with the refugee influx, the UK provided visas under its two schemes, if one of the family members of the Ukrainian resides in the UK and next if any of the UK residents offer to give accommodation to the Ukrainian. Initially, the UK faced criticism for the long visa process, which later converted to digital applications.

The UK’s foreign minister Liz Truss, who is contesting for the Tory party leadership said that she would be Ukraine’s “greatest friend” if elected to office. She promised to provide more weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, ensuring a “strategic defeat” for Putin.
 
Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki met Germany’s opposition leader Friedrich Merz to address the tense relations between the two states. Morawiecki criticized Germany for delaying the arms delivery to Ukraine and said that the time taken by Germany to fulfill its commitment was “not satisfactory.”
 
US retired lieutenant general Ben Hodges commented on Ukraine's position in the war. He remarked that if the pace of foreign aid and assistance is increased, then Ukraine might be able to win the war by the end of 2022.
 
On 28 July, Estonia said that it will not allow people from Russia to avail temporary residence permits or student visas in the country. The foreign minister reiterated that this move was to create “relentless pressure” on Russia.
 
Hanover, Germany introduced energy-saving measures, where public monuments and fountains will be switched off, and only cold showers will be available in municipal swimming pools and sports halls. Berlin also switched the lights off in about 200 historic monuments and municipal buildings. The measures are to reduce Europe’s energy consumption due to a potential stoppage of Russian gas supplies,
 
On the same day, the European Commission revealed that it will amend the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) proposal to take into account Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant changes in the geopolitics of the region. The commission said that the war has affected global markets, supply chains, and food security, and has shown how critical it is to maintain the connectivity amongst EU member states. As per the amended proposal, Russia and Belarus will be removed from the TEN-T map, while Ukraine and Moldova will be added. Commissioner for Transport Adina Valean said: “...our proposal will help improve transport connectivity between these two countries and the EU, facilitating economic exchanges and better connections for people and businesses alike.”
 
A review of the humanitarian situation, freedom of expression, and peaceful assembly in Russia was initiated by the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE). The US and 37 other countries will now establish an expert mission to conduct a thorough review of the human rights situation in Russia.

The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war 
On 27 July, AP News reported that the Philippine government has canceled a deal with Russia for the purchase of 16 military transport helicopters. The former defence secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that he with the approval of the former president Rodrigo Duterte had canceled the deal due to fears of possible US sanctions under their federal law called the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.  
 
Following the Black Sea shipping agreement, India plans to resume their import of Ukrainian sunflower oil. The Sunvin Group estimates that they will receive about 50-60,000 tonnes of sunflower oil by September, thus bringing some relief to the world’s largest edible oils importer. Reportedly, India imports nearly 2 million tonnes of sunflower oil annually, 75 percent of which comes from Ukraine

Europe’s second largest car manufacturer, the Volkswagon group, called for buyers announcing its decision to sell off its business. Volkswagon has a factory in Kaluga with a capacity to produce 225,000 vehicles per year. 
 

References
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces repulse Russian offensive on Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka,” Ukrinform, 29 July 2022
“84% of Ukrainians Convinced Territorial Concessions to the Occupiers Cannot be Allowed,” Kyiv Post, 28 July 2022
Jason Jay Smart, “Russia Plans to Hold ‘Sham’ Referendum in Occupied Territories of Ukraine,” Kyiv Post, 28 July 2022
“Russians launch 22 missile and 10 artillery strikes on Mykolayiv region in past day,” Ukrinform, 28 July 2022
“Ethiopia: Lavrov meets govt leaders in Addis, attacks global reliance on US dollar,” Africanews, 28 July 2022
“The commander announced the dominance of the Black Sea Fleet in the Sea of ​​Azov,” TASS, 28 July 2022
“Kherson Region to hold referendum, accede to Russia soon — official,” TASS, 28 July 2022
“Russia's media regulator asks for Novaya Gazeta's registration to be revoked,” Reuters, 28 July 2022
“Europe’s largest carmaker leaving Russia – media,” RT, 28 July 2022
Samantha Lock and Jedidajah Otte, “Russia-Ukraine war latest: what we know on day 156 of the invasion,” The Guardian, 29 July 2022
Jon Shelton, “Warsaw criticizes Germany over delay of military equipment as Merz visits,” Deutsche Welle, 28 July 2022
“Transport infrastructure: Commission amends TEN-T proposal to reflect infrastructure impacts of Russia's aggression against Ukraine,” European Commission, 28 July 2022
“More than 100,000 Ukrainians have come to Britain since war –government,” Reuters, 28 July 2022
“Situation on battlefield significantly turning in Ukraine’s favor – US general,” Ukrinform, 28 July 2022
Philip Oltermann, “German cities impose cold showers and turn off lights amid Russian gas crisis,” The Guardian, 29 July 2022
“OSCE countries to review human rights situation in Russia,” Reuters, 29 July 2022
Jim Gomez, “AP Exclusive: Philippines scraps Russian chopper deal,” AP News, 27 July 2022
“In a Sign of Hope, India Plans to Resume Buying Ukrainian Ag Cargoes,” The Maritime Executive, 28 July 2022

IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav

IRELAND
Farmers are expected to cut down carbon emissions by 25 per cent
On 28 July, the Republic of Ireland's government's climate action plan requested the agricultural sector to cut carbon emissions by 25 per cent. The per cent of carbon emissions cut was decided after long negotiations between the three coalition parties of Ireland. The Irish Farmers' association has stated that they will protest against the carbon emission cut plan if it affects Irish farmers and the rural economy. The emission ceilings are set to be achieved by 2030 by the Irish government. (“Farmers in Republic of Ireland to be asked to cut emissions by 25%,” BBC, 28 July 2022)

FRANCE
Paris to undertake cooling system across the city
On 28 July, Paris decided to build the largest cooling system to fight against the heatwave that has spread across the city. Paris City Hall has agreed to a contract with the private company that takes care of the cooling systems in museums to triple its network by 2042. The cooling system injects cool water into the air to keep the surrounding areas chilled. The system uses a network of underground water pipes that takes water from the river Seine, which will help Paris cool down by one degree Celsius. (Angela Symons, “Paris’ eco-friendly underground cooling system to become the largest in the world,” euronews, 28 July 2022)

REGIONAL
EU's new antitrust directorate to be headed by two veterans
On 28 July, two experienced antitrust officials, Albert Bacchiega, director of information, communication, and media, who is the chief of antitrust and merger cases involving the tech, media, and consumer electronics industries as well as Thomas Kramler, head of the unit dealing with antitrust cases in e-commerce and data economy, are being considered by the European Commission to become the head of its new directorate. Both the veterans will take up the task to implement the Digital Markets Act effectively. The act forces tech giants like Google, Apple, Meta, and Amazon to push the usage of competing services by users rather than pushing their products. This will allow other companies to have a chance and the tech giants will be forfeited from using consumer data as leverage. (Foo Yun Chee, “EXCLUSIVE EU mulls new unit with antitrust veterans to enforce tech rules - sources,” Reuters, 28 July 2022)

Germany advises Greece to systematically investigate refugee pushback on its border
On 28 July, Germany's foreign minister visited Greece to discuss important matters regarding the pushback of refugees and Berlin's world war II reparations. Germany was accused of not taking any actions against the pushback allegations on the Greek borders even though one of its newspaper agencies, Der Spiegel reported on the issue. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) is said to be involved in the issue. Asylum seekers fleeing countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan travel to Turkey to get into Europe via Greece. But they are ignored, push-backed, and face human rights violations at the hands of Frontex. The Greeks deny the allegation and also say that the country has the right to protect its border. Baerbock had called on the Greek authorities to further investigate the issue systematically. (“Greece: Baerbock calls for investigation into pushbacks at EU borders,” Deutsche Welle, 28 July 2022

INTERNATIONAL
Saudi prince's visit to France face a lot of heat from Jamal Khashoggi’s relatives
On 28 July, Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman met with France's president Emmanuel Macron when he visited Paris. Amid the rising energy crisis, talks for energy trade between Saudi Arabia and France were discussed between the two leaders. The welcoming of prince bin Salman met with criticisms from many people including the relatives of the deceased journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi was killed by some Saudi agents in their consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. Speculations of prince bin Salman being involved in the murder have led to outrages against the meeting between Macron and Mohammed bin Salman. Relatives of the journalist are pleading with France to arrest the Saudi prince. But due to the necessity of energy trade between the OPEC country and France, no actions are taken against prince bin Salman. (“Paul Kirby, “Saudi Crown prince's lavish Macron visit prompts outcry,” BBC, 28 July 2022